Missouri Farm Income Could Climb in 2025 after Two-Year Fall, Report Shows

Thanks largely to payments from the federal government, Missouri farmers will see a 9% net increase in income, according to the Spring 2025 Missouri Farm Income Outlook. This is the first of two outlooks scheduled for release this year by the University of Missouri’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF). And the forecasted income increase follows back-to-back years of net farm income declines.

The RaFF report expects farmers to plant more hay in 2025 (+82,000 acres from 2024), more corn (+350,000 acres), and fewer soybeans (-200,000 acres). However, corn farmers –- despite planting a bigger crop – are expected to see lower yields. The productivity decline combined with lower anticipated corn prices (-2%) will shrink corn receipts by 1%, according to the report.

The expected cash receipts drop for soybean producers would be larger than their counterparts in corn. Decreased soybean acres won’t fully offset stable yields and prices, the report found. That would result in a 7% drop in cash receipts.

Hay production is forecast to drop (3%), even though farmers may plant an additional 45,000 acres in 2025. Higher prices could help those producers see stable hay receipts.

RELATED: This is what made the interim leader of RaFF warn American Farmand Leader a year ago “to watch the downside.”  

Cotton, rice, and wheat farmers may all see negative cash receipts in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the RaFF report.

Cotton farmers are expected to decrease their planting area by 80,000 acres. The report found that higher cotton prices will not be able to outgrow diminished yields. The projected math adds up to a 12% drop in cash receipts.

Farmers will plant 34,000 fewer combined acres of rice and wheat this year compared to last year. And both can expect lower yields and lower prices to go along with the decreased planting. Rice farmers could see a cash receipts reduction of 6%. But it will be a far bigger drop for wheat producers: 19%.

Missouri farmers could benefit from several decreased costs in 2025, the RaFF report laid out.

2025 expenses that could fall:

• Feed

• Chemicals

• Interests

• Net rent to landlords

Those could mean an overall production expenses’ reduction of $188 million for the year versus 2024. And federal crop insurance indemnities could climb by $137 million.

“Direct government payments totaling $1.3 billion ($0.9 billion higher than in 2024) are projected to more than offset the decline in crop receipts and inventories, and to generate profits in an otherwise unprofitable environment. Missouri’s projected 9% increase in net farm income is smaller than the projected 30% increase in U.S. net farm income for 2025.”

 --University of Missouri’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center Spring 2025 Farm Income Outlook                                                     

Farmers Still in Limbo Over USDA Funding Freeze

Perhaps, Missouri farmers will eventually get the USDA federal funding that they had expected after the Trump administration finishes the review of funding tied to the Inflation Reduction Act and Rural Energy for America Program. President Donald Trump’s January 20th executive order – one of the record amount that he issued in his first 100 days – paused federal payments for those two USDA federal programs established during the Biden administration.

The freeze leaves some farmers in limbo and filled with frustration and anxiety. Emily Wright and Paul Weber in Boone County own Three Creeks Farm and Forest. They grow produce for area restaurants and grocery stores and applied for a grant to build an aggregation facility for other small producers in the area.

The owners told the Columbia Missourian that the potential funding loss would not be significant enough to put them under financially. But the loss of tens of thousands of dollars would limit their support for other small farmers.

Wright said, “If we want to sort of work towards our larger mission and support fellow farmers and really build a local food system, we do, that effort will be dependent on some of these programs that have been frozen.”

She added, “and so as much as we would like to just keep moving forward, we’re not sure that that’s feasible without the support from those programs,” Wright said.

RELATED: Alan and Hannah Perry of Kirksville, Missouri, shared what it was like to farm despite a drought in this multi-media series.