California Farmland Loses Billions in Value: Scott Bozzo

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California’s farmland values have been falling, much like Scott Bozzo, the state’s American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers 2025 Farm Manager of the Year, expected. A rising number of bankruptcies, fortunately, have not sent those values into a free fall. But the state has still lost an estimated $17 billion in farmland value over the past year, Bozzo estimates.

Scott Bozzo bio

• Macotera Ag Group – President/Founder

• American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, California chapter

• Accredited Farm Manager

• Homestead Capital -- Former Vice President Permanent Crops

• UBS – Associate Director Western Region

Bozzo co-chairs the ASFMRA 2025 Trends® in Agricultural Land and Lease Values for his home state. Disappointing commodity prices and adjusting to the California Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) – the 2014 three-bill package that requires local and regional management of groundwater use – are the primary reasons that California’s farmland values have taken a financial hit with double digit drops.

The recent land value depreciation that the Trends report detected was not a surprise for Bozzo and others who closely tracked what was happening.

Steep Decline in Some California Land Values

Some of the declines in farmland values are even more extreme. There are almond orchards that sold for not much more than half of the price that they did just a few years ago.

Land prices where landowners have experienced significant reductions in groundwater pumping because of SGMA changes have seen values fall quickly. 

A rise in bankruptcies will be a factor to watch, though.

“Yes, there is pain at the smaller level,” Bozzo acknowledged. “But you’ve also seen it at the ‘big boy’ level, too.”

RELATED: American Farmland Owner reported on the massive bankruptcy of Trinitas Advantaged Agricultural Partners IV and Trinitas Farming LLC last year. The companies faced a debt of $188 million from operations in the California counties of Contra Costa, Fresno, San Joaquin, Solano, and Tulare.

From wine to almonds to tree fruit, several high-profile bankruptcies have rocked California’s farming sector over the past two years. Yet despite the scale of some of these collapses, Bozzo emphasized that their influence on farmland values has depended heavily on location, crop type, and overall industry health at the time of the bankruptcy.

The most striking example may be in the tree fruit industry. A bankruptcy there raised eyebrows. But as Bozzo explained, “Those properties were in some of the best water districts and farming regions in California, and so competitors were eager to gobble it up.”

Because the affected land was high quality and located in premium agricultural areas, values held firm—even increasing in some cases. “That transition happened, and quite frankly, it didn’t really miss a beat,” Bozzo said. “It didn’t tank values in those areas.”

The story is more mixed in the almond sector, where declining prices over several years created a more fragile economic base. “It wasn’t necessarily in core farming regions for almonds,” Bozzo noted of one major bankruptcy.

Orchards in less optimal locations saw softer land values, but the central areas where almond production is king remained relatively resilient. As Bozzo put it, “You didn’t have a huge Rolodex of people wanting to gobble all those things up right away.”

Wine Industry Struggles

Meanwhile, the wine industry faced its own upheaval. Although not as vineyard-heavy in terms of the assets that entered bankruptcy proceedings, the wine sector saw the sale of some vineyard land.

But much of the attention fell on brands and processing facilities. “The wineries are looking to be more conservative,” Bozzo explained. “They’re wondering, maybe now is not the time to go on this massive buying spree.”

Across all these sectors, Bozzo said, a key differentiator is water. SGMA underscores that. “California water is the most critical portion of investing in or owning land,” he emphasized.

Fortunately, the state has seen three consecutive years of at least average or above-average rainfall—a rare occurrence that Bozzo called “an extreme release valve for the industry.”

Looking ahead to 2025, Bozzo remains cautiously optimistic. “It’ll be interesting to see if almonds can continue their upward trajectory in price.”

Profitability has been elusive for many growers, but improving prices and strong water conditions offer hope for stabilization. Similarly, the wine industry is in a period of reassessment, with players treading carefully rather than rushing into acquisitions.

Despite the shakeups, Bozzo sees opportunity. “There’s tremendous buying opportunities in the market today,” he said. “If you have liquidity, it’s a great time to try to enter the market for sure.”

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