Geopolitical Expert Marko Papic: Current Immigration Effort is Not a Plan for the Future

Marko Papic was not born in the United States. Papic was born in Serbia. He understands the contributions of immigrants to this country. And he understands the importance of an organized legal immigration process. He does not understand how the current federal immigration enforcement policy will lead to economic success.

“On the immigration front, I just don’t really see any solution to the uncertainty,” Papic told American Farmland Owner from his office in Santa Monica, California. “… there’s no plan. There’s just enforcement. And that doesn’t solve America’s needs, because the U.S. still does need immigrants in various sectors.”

Papic said that President Donald Trump has tried to use policy tools—such as tariffs—that can be implemented without Congress (although, the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing whether the president has that unilateral authority to levy tariffs without Congress as he is doing).

Immigration Reform Needed

But immigration reform requires legislation, and that means bipartisan agreement. “There is no way to pass a bill in Congress without at least 5 to 10 Democrats signing on in the Senate (to join the Republican majority),” he said. “That’s where I don’t see any real solution to the uncertainty on the immigration front.”

Marko Papic Bio

• Macro Geopolitical Chief Strategist, BCA Access & GeoMacro – BCA Research

• Author – “Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”

• Former Partner and Chief Strategist – Clocktower Group

• Former Young Leaders Circle Member – Milken Institute

• Former Senior Vice President and Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy – BCA Research

• Former Senior Analyst -- Stratfor

As Americans watch video of Immigration Customs and Enforcement agents -- sometimes with faces covered and no visible identifiable law enforcement uniforms – tackling and dragging individuals during immigration enforcement actions, they may wonder whether the physical show of force is intentional as a future deterrent to those who live in the United States without legal authority or to those thinking about trying to illegally cross into the country.

Papic said that is absolutely the intention. “I think that’s what the goal is,” he said, “The point of the brutality of the enforcement action is to ensure that nobody dares to come to America illegally.”

And in Papic’s view, it has worked. “The number of people trying to cross into the U.S. illegally is down to zero,” he said, attributing the shift to the fact that most migrants are pursuing economic opportunity, not fleeing conflict. “The reason people come to America is because you can find a job and make money—illegally.”

Papic also criticized what he sees as a longstanding contradiction in American economic life: “There is this built-in hypocrisy of American capitalism, which is that it requires labor… we let the illegal immigrants basically invest $10,000 (to pay smugglers)… to come here, and now… we put them in a white van and ship them out.”

That hypocrisy, he argued, must be confronted before any lasting immigration framework can take shape.

RELATED: Another geopolitical expert, Peter Zeihan, is concerned about the future of agriculture if too many immigrants leave the United States.

Deportation Impact on Agriculture

For farmers—many already struggling with input prices, market pressures, and unpredictable weather—Papic warned that the current trajectory is unsustainable.

“This is going to be a huge problem,” he said when asked about agriculture.

Papic pointed to Canada’s long-running guest-worker program as a model that reliably supports agricultural labor needs. Workers enter legally, complete seasonal work, return home, and reapply the following year. Contrary to political rhetoric in the U.S., he said, “People go back. This idea that you just disappear is just not true.”

Guest-worker systems work, Papic argued, when both sides—labor supply and employer demand—are regulated. Papic believes that employers must face real consequences for illegally hiring, and migrant workers must have a clear, repeatable legal pathway. Without both, the system collapses.

Midwest Farmers Could Lead Immigration Reform

Papic believes the ideological divide between the political left and right has become so entrenched that neither side is likely to propose viable reform. The left frames most migrants as fleeing mortal danger, while a segment of the right views immigration primarily through a cultural or racial lens.

“Both sides are so far apart,” he said, “that I think it’s really up to the Midwest… centrist Republicans and Democrats in Midwest farm states… to tell both sides, ‘y’all are crazy. Here’s a solution.’”

In other words, the states most dependent on immigrant labor may ultimately become the force that pressures Congress to act.

Despite concerns about the moral and humanitarian dimensions of enforcement, Papic argued that public backlash over brutality is unlikely to change policy. Instead, the pocketbook will.

“Out of all the issues out there, President Trump has the highest approval rating… on immigration,” he said.

But his weakest numbers are inflation and affordability. As labor shortages drive up prices in agriculture, hospitality, and service industries, Papic predicts voters will eventually recognize the economic need for legal, regulated foreign labor.

“The median voter… eventually gets it,” he said. “America is going to need workers from outside of the U.S.… other countries have these programs, they work. Let’s move on.”

For agriculture, the takeaway is clear: labor uncertainty is far from over, and the path to stability will require sustained, coordinated political pressure from the states that feed the nation.

RELATED: Geopolitical expert Marko Papic will be a keynote speaker at the Land Investment Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 13, 2025. Find out how to attend in person or virtually here. 

American Farmland Owner is a media sponsor of the Land Investment Expo.