Ron Dunker: Farmers Need to Make a Plan

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Commodity prices, interest rates, weather, tariffs, artificial intelligence, ethanol, or the next “must have” piece of machinery.

Those topics matter.

But according to Ron Dunker -- Head of Business Development at Oaken, which provides a digital operating system for farmland leases -- the biggest challenge facing many farming operations isn't getting nearly enough attention: having a plan for your farm.

"What's a plan?" Dunker said during a conversation with American Farmland Owner. "That's something you really want to stress with people...have a plan."

Ron Dunker bio:

• Oaken – Head of Business Development

• “Knowledge and Time Podcast” – Creator/Host

• Bayer Crop Science – Former Commercial Business Lead-Large Grower

• Monsanto Company – Former Leader ESH/Law Commercial

Farmland changing

Dunker’s concern centers on something happening across rural America: farmland is changing hands and could face significant changes over the next few decades.

"If you look at the way that land is transitioning and the speed in which it's transitioning," he said, "and you look at farming operations across the United States...looking at those leased acres and saying, 'Okay, how am I going to retain those acres for my farming operation?' That's critical."

Many producers don't realize just how dependent their operations are on rented ground. Dunker points to data showing that roughly half to two-thirds of the land farmed in the United States is leased.

Lose enough of those acres, and even a successful operation can suddenly face difficult financial decisions.

Farmers relationships with landlords

What surprises Dunker isn't that farmers value their landlord relationships. It's that so many assume those relationships alone will protect them.

"I've talked to hundreds and hundreds of growers across the United States," he said. "They say, 'Ron, I'm good. I've got 20 or 30 years with my landowners, and we have a great relationship.'"

Dunker agrees those long-term relationships are valuable.

"I said, 'That is awesome,'" he recalled. "'You've worked very hard at maintaining that relationship, building that relationship, increasing the overall value of that land for not only yourself, but for the landowner.'"

Then he asks one question.

"'What's the plan for the next 25 or 30 years? Do you have that land locked down? Do you have it secured?'"

That's where the conversation usually changes.

Farmland planning

"When I ask that question, nine times out of ten," Dunker said, "it's, 'I don't know. No, I haven't thought about that.'"

That answer concerns him because the next generation of landowners may look very different than the current one.

For decades, many lease agreements were built on trust, family connections, and years of shared history. A handshake, a cup of coffee at the local café, or stopping by the farmhouse often helped maintain those relationships.

But agriculture is changing.

Farm ownership changes

As farms pass from one generation to the next, ownership is increasingly moving to heirs who may live hundreds of miles away, have careers outside agriculture, and view farmland primarily as an investment rather than as the family homestead.

That shift requires farmers to think differently about how they present themselves and communicate with landowners.

"We've now moved to how do you become a more professional style of tenant," Dunker said. "What kind of tools are you going to apply?"

He believes producers need to demonstrate not only that they can farm well but also that they can communicate effectively, provide transparency, and show long-term stewardship of the land.

The urgency is driven by demographics.

RELATED: This Midwest farmer created a unique way to inspire conversations to get families talking about farm succession plans.

Farmland transfers

"If you look at USDA data," Dunker said, "the timeline for the next 25 to 30 years...it is going to be the largest land wealth transfer of land in the United States."

Every one of those ownership changes creates uncertainty. Existing leases may be reconsidered. New heirs may sell the property. Investment groups may become interested. A neighboring farmer may make an offer. What feels secure today may not be nearly as secure tomorrow.

Dunker isn't suggesting those outcomes are inherently bad.

"That land may get sold," he said. "You may lose it to your neighbor, you may lose it to some other ag investment entity, and all those are good avenues for land to go to. I'm not saying that that's bad."

His point is that producers shouldn't simply hope everything works out.

They need a strategy.

"You have to start thinking," he said. "Don't think about it tomorrow, because that might be too late."

Risk is always part of farming. Farmers buy crop insurance for weather. They market grain to manage price risk. They maintain equipment to reduce breakdowns.

But how many have a written plan – with all their records and vital business information modernized in digital form like Oaken provides -- for keeping their rented acres over the next generation?

Dunker believes this may be agriculture's "hidden disruptor."

"I've watched a lot of your podcasts and listened to a lot of the industry and been at a lot of conferences where they're having all these talks around AI and ethanol and all these different topics that are impacting the industry," he said. "But nobody is talking about this hidden disruptor that's going on in agriculture, and that's this land transition that's happening extremely fast."

It's a reminder that the future of many farming operations won't be decided solely by yields or markets. It may be determined by conversations that happen long before a lease expires.

For many farmers, the best time to develop a plan was years ago.

The second-best time is today, Dunker advised.