Speculation: Possible 50% Farmland Value Drop in Canadian Region

A projection is only that, a projection. However, any time that an analyst sees data that could indicate that farmland in a region could lose half its value merits attention. That is the case in Saskatchewan, a province of about 1.2 million people in Western Canada.

Saskatchewan is a major producer of wheat and canola in Canada. The province also produces other grains like flax, rye, oats, peas, lentils, barley, and canary seed. And it is the world’s largest exporter of mustard seed.

Beef cattle and forestry are also important segments of the overall agricultural production.

RELATED: Farm Credit Canada found that farmland values dropped in 2024 but still appreciated 9.1%. Here are the reasons why. 

Saskatchewan Farmland Could See Sharp Correction

However, grain marketing analyst Trent Klarenbach thinks that farmland values in Saskatchewan have reached a peak and could fall back to what had been the region’s previous high nearly 45 years ago. Values of $2,647 (adjusted for inflation) could retreat to $1,270 based on Klarenbach’s analysis.

“I believe very strongly that that 1981 level gets retested at some point,” Klarenbach told The Western Producer. 

He thinks a correction is coming, although he doesn’t know when.

“As a farmer, you really want to be careful of buying at these levels because they are quite extended and this could be an area of resistance,” said Klarenbach.

For those thinking about leaving the farming business, this might be the time, he said.