The Next Farm Shift: Why Millions of Acres May Leave Crop Production and What It Means for Landowners

A new set of long-term projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) points to a subtle but important shift in the U.S. farm economy: a significant reduction in the number of acres used to plant row crops over the next ten years.

Economists with the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois outlined this trend and wrote about what it means for farmers and landowners on the farmdoc website.

Ten-Year USDA Outlook Total Planted Acres of Row Crops

According to the USDA’s baseline outlook through 2035, total planted acres for major row crops are expected to decline by roughly 6 to 8 million acres.

To put that number in perspective, the USDA estimates 247.6 million acres will be used to grow the eight major row crops this planting season.

The eight major row crops planted in the United States include corn, soybeans, wheat, barley, sorghum, oats, upland cotton, and rice.

That marks a departure from the past several decades, when total cropland remained relatively stable and farmers primarily adjusted by shifting between crops like corn and soybeans.

This time, the adjustment is different: fewer acres will be needed overall.

University of Illinois economists say the reason comes down to a growing imbalance between supply and demand.

Why There Is Too Much Supply

Advances in seed technology, genetics, and farm management continue to push yields higher. Even with fewer acres, total production of key crops like corn and soybeans is projected to increase. But demand is not keeping pace.

Corn provides the clearest example. Over the next decade, demand growth is expected to be modest, with ethanol use flat and domestic consumption softening. Exports are projected to rise, but not enough to offset steady gains in yield.

The result is a supply-and-demand gap that puts downward pressure on prices and reduces the incentive to plant additional acres.

RELATED: Another financial pressure for farmers this spring includes increased fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran. 

Global Competitors Could Limit Increased Soybean Exports

Soybeans follow a similar pattern. Demand tied to biofuels and processing is expected to grow, but global competition—particularly from Brazil—limits export expansion.

For landowners and producers, the implications are significant.

The USDA suggests long-run price projections of around $4.40 per bushel for corn and $10.55 for soybeans. This represents a return to more average conditions after the volatility of the early 2020s.

Image courtesy: farmdocDAILY.

While not historically low, these price levels are unlikely to generate strong margins, particularly on higher cost or marginal land.

What This Means for Land Values

If crop production will need fewer acres, some land may transition out of row crops altogether, according to the USDA.

A small portion is expected to move into conservation programs, but other uses—ranging from pasture to development or renewable energy—could also play a role.

At the same time, not all acres will be affected equally. The USDA predicts highly productive land should remain competitive, supported by strong yields and efficient operators. Lower-quality or higher-cost acres, however, may face increasing pressure as returns tighten.

University of Illinois authors note these projections depend heavily on current policy assumptions. They add that changes in biofuel policy around ethanol blends or renewable diesel could shift the demand outlook and alter acreage trends.

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