Almond Growers Finally Seeing Some Stability After Years of Tough Decisions
- Dave Price
- Jun 12
- 3 min read
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For almond growers, the last several years have been defined by difficult choices, tight margins, and a lot of uncertainty. But according to Carl Evers III, President of AgIS Capital Property Management and Director of Sustainability, the industry may finally be finding some balance.
One of the biggest shifts has been something many in agriculture rarely celebrate: fewer acres in production. Evers pointed to a milestone that would have been hard to imagine just a few years ago.
“Actually, I believe this was the first year in quite some time that bearing acres in the almond industry have actually gone down,” Evers told American Farmland Owner.
Almond oversupply
That reduction matters because the almond sector spent years struggling with oversupply. Massive production increases pushed inventories higher and prices lower, leaving many growers struggling to make the numbers work.
The result is an industry that looks different today than it did during the era of record-breaking harvests.
“Crop levels have steadily kind of lessened as well,” Evers explained. “So, that 3-billion-pound crop we had a little while ago looks like it could now be something of the past. I don’t know that we have another 3-billion-pound almond crop in front of us.”
Carl Evers III bio:
AgIS Capital – President of Property Management/Director of Sustainability
AgIS Capital – Former Director of Sustainability and VP of California Operations
Water Education Foundation – Board member
Water Solutions Network – Member
Family farmer
Hancock Natural Resource Group – Former Vice President, Project Manager, and Regional Manager
Almond market stability
For the remaining growers who have endured years of depressed prices, that is welcome news.
"So, some stabilization, at least from the supply side," Evers added.
The path to that stabilization wasn't easy. Pulling out an orchard is one of the most difficult decisions a landowner can make. It represents years of investment, labor, and planning. Yet economic realities forced many growers to reconsider their options.
Evers says there were two major drivers behind the reduction in acreage. The first was simple farm economics.
"You have just farm gate economics driving lack of replanting," he said. "You've got these older age orchards that are just aging out, and landowners are either deciding to defer redevelopment or just go into alternative crops, maybe row crops, or a different tree nut."
In many cases, growers reached the end of an orchard's productive life and chose not to start over.
California’s water challenges in agriculture
The second factor may have an even longer-lasting impact on California agriculture: water.
"And then you've got water restrictions with groundwater specifically in the San Joaquin Valley," Evers said. "They're just not going to make it feasible to redevelop those older orchards."
Groundwater regulations continue to reshape farming decisions throughout California. For some almond operations, the limitations on future water availability make replanting a risky proposition.
The combined effect has changed the landscape of the industry.
"Where we had a big stack of non-bearing acres following these older orchards before, that just isn't the case anymore," Evers said.
For growers who have managed to survive the downturn, the payoff may finally be arriving in the form of stronger pricing.
Rising almond prices
Acreage reductions mean rebounding prices. “Stable to upward," Evers said. "Which, the way things have been for the last five years, we'll take that."
That's a sentiment many almond producers can appreciate. After years of watching margins shrink, stability itself feels like a victory.
The growers positioned to benefit the most may be those who used the lean years to become more efficient.
"Especially those that have been able to tighten their belts through those really tough times, be disciplined," Evers said. "You're efficient enough of an operator that your break-even cost per pound of production. You reduce that during those really hard times, and now you're really able to take advantage of the better pricing."
That's a lesson that extends beyond almonds. Agriculture has always rewarded resilience, efficiency, and patience. For almond growers, patience has been tested repeatedly over the last several years.
Now, after tough decisions on acreage, water, and costs, many are finally seeing signs that those sacrifices may be paying off.
