Farmer Mac Economist Breaks Down the Farm Economy and What’s Ahead for 2026

When it comes to the farm economy, emotions can run high. But the numbers tell the real story. Jackson Takach, chief economist at Farmer Mac, spends his days analyzing those numbers and what they mean for producers, landowners, and rural lenders.

During a recent presentation at the Land Investment Expo in Des Moines, Takach broke down the forces shaping agriculture today and the trends that will influence decision-making in the years ahead.

Here are key takeaways from his outlook on some of the most pressing economic issues facing agriculture:

Soybean Market

“We’re not that far away from meaningful price pressure in soybeans. It wouldn’t take much to move the market.” -- Takach

• The U.S. is coming off several strong years of soybean production.

• Brazil continues to expand soybean output, adding pressure to global supplies.

• Current supply levels are limiting price strength.

• A poor production year in Brazil, increased biofuel demand, or stronger buying from China could quickly change the price outlook.

• While prices remain constrained, the market is closer to upside pressure than it may appear.

  
  

Corn Market

“Brazil is coming along as a major market player in the world for both corn and soybeans and part of the reason why we have seen this downward price pressure.” -- Takach   

• Brazil is becoming a major competitor to the U.S. in corn production.

• Improved growing practices are allowing Brazil to produce more corn each year.

• Increased global supply from Brazil continues to weigh on U.S. corn prices.

  
  

RELATED: How a new Iowa plant is finding new ways to use Iowa corn in everything from beauty products to blue jeans. 

Cattle Market

“Cattle prices are off the charts. We’ve entered new territory, and this cycle hasn’t stopped. I don’t know that it's going to stop.” -- Takach 

• Strong demand and a lack of beef cattle are driving feed cattle prices higher.

• Prices are at historic highs, pushing the market into uncharted territory.

• Typical cattle cycles last three to five years, but this one has continued longer than expected.

•  Fewer people want to expand their operations because raising cattle is labor intensive.

• Consolidation remains a major driver in cattle market expansion.

• Beef imports remain limited due to disease concerns.

• Consumer fatigue is possible as retail beef prices remain elevated.

Dairy Market

“Limited supply is turning strong cattle prices into a financial lifeline for many dairy producers.” – Takach

• Prices for dairy cows are extremely high.

• Dairy markets are experiencing a similar run to cattle.

• Even when milk margins are tight, animal values are helping stabilize operations.

  
  

Hog Market

“Lower feed costs are giving hog producers profitability and demand could carry them through 2026 and 2027.” -- Takach

• Hog producers are seeing solid profitability.

• Lower grain prices have reduced feed costs.

• Pork business remains seasonal, but recent trends have been favorable.

• Strong domestic and global protein demand continues to support the market.

  
  

Government Support and Bankruptcy

“Government support programs are providing liquidity when producers need it most.” -- Takach

• Farm bankruptcies eased during the third quarter of 2025.

• Government support programs have improved liquidity and cash flow.

• Federal assistance is expected to help balance financial stress in 2025 and 2026.

  
  

Permanent Crops and California Agriculture

• Permanent crops struggled in 2023 and 2024.

• Almonds, walnuts, fruits, and other tree nuts were pressured by high growing costs, trade disruptions, and oversupply.

• Some recovery emerged in 2025.

• Relief has been especially important for California agriculture.

• Fruit prices could see additional upside in 2026.

  
  

Alternative Crop Uses: Oil and Fuel

“Bio-based diesel has strong tailwinds, but these markets don’t develop overnight.” -- Takach

• New sources of demand are critical for corn and soybeans.

• Soybean crush for fuel is expanding.

• New domestic demand is coming online for soybeans and some corn.

• Processing crops domestically keeps more value in the U.S. economy.

• Increased investment is being made in biodiesel mandates, support programs, and new processing plants.

• Expanded crush capacity also helps offset reduced soybean demand from China.

• U.S. soybean crush capacity has nearly doubled over the past five to six years.

  
  

Inflation

“Moderate inflation isn’t all bad for agriculture—farmers need some inflation for incomes and land values to grow.” -- Takach

• Inflation currently sits around 2.7%.

• While higher than ideal, it is far below recent peak levels.

• Inflation supports commodity prices, farm income, and farmland values.

  
  

Housing Market

• The housing market is closely tied to farmland values.

• A slowdown in housing demand could reduce non-farm pressure on land prices.

  
  
  
  

The Wine Industry

“You have many growers who are sort of ignoring this demographic shift and this demand shift.” -- Takach

• Wine has historically been a lucrative agricultural sector.

• Consumption has declined over the past 20 years in the U.S. and globally.

• Younger generations are drinking less alcohol.

• Oversupply of grapes is becoming a concern.

  
  

RELATED: Why younger people are changing the wine industry and how producers are adapting to this change.