Four Insights on Farm Financial Stress: Loans, Exports, Fuel Prices, and Beef Demand
There has been no shortage of headlines about the struggles facing American farmers in recent years. Lower commodity prices, rising input costs, and U.S. trade tensions are just a few of the factors making it difficult for producers to turn a profit.
But recent updates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City on agricultural and rural economic trends suggest that not all the news is bad.
Four insights from the Bank’s economists on farm financial stress, including loan repayment rates, agricultural exports, fuel prices, and beef demand explain what is happening across the economy.
How Are Farm Loan Repayment Rates Holding Up?
Nate Kauffman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shared an update on how farmers who take out loans to cover operating expenses are faring:
“Farm loan repayment rates have remained slightly weaker than a year ago, but the pace of deterioration has slowed recently alongside a significant increase in crop prices. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s quarterly survey of agricultural credit conditions, the diffusion index for farm loan repayment rates was 82 in the third quarter, indicating some deterioration from a year ago, but not as weak as the previous quarter.
Crop prices increased notably from the second quarter to the most recent quarter, with corn and soybean prices up by 8.0% and 7.4%, respectively. The increase in crop prices has led to improved profitability among row crop producers despite large increases in costs associated with diesel.”
Agricultural Exports
Cortney Cowley of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City laid out why U.S. agricultural exports could see growth in 2026:
“Agricultural exports from the United States are on pace to increase in 2026 but may not reach the historically high levels from 2022. Although exports to China increased by nearly 50% in the first half of 2026, the 78% decline from 2022 to 2025 has left a large void in trade of U.S. agricultural products that has been difficult to fill.
Agricultural exports to other countries have continued to increase, especially to Mexico. Although Canada remains the second largest trade partner for U.S. agricultural products, growth has been stagnant in that market for four years.”
How Much Are Higher Diesel Prices Really Costing Farmers?
Ty Kreitman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City recently showed why perspective matters when evaluating rising fuel prices:
“The recent surge in diesel prices has increased fuel costs for all types of farming operations, but the rise in expenses has also coincided with higher crop prices. Diesel accounts for most overall fuel costs for crop producers and prices in late September were over 75% higher than last year, representing a notable increase in costs alongside fall harvest.
However, this amounts to only about $0.11 more per bushel in fuel costs for corn at national average yields, compared to a more than $0.80 increase in corn prices over the same period. Fuel costs for rice are notably higher and that same rise in diesel prices would increase per hundredweight cost by over $1.00, but rice prices have increased by nearly $4.00.”
Beef Demand
Cortney Cowley of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City also explained why consumer demand could continue to support the beef market:
“Consumer demand for many beef products has continued to increase even as retail prices have climbed higher for seven consecutive years. Since 2020, retail prices for ribeye steak and ground beef have increased nearly 50% and 60%, respectively, while prices for other meat products like pork chops and chicken breast have remained relatively more stable.
Low supplies have contributed to higher prices for beef, but strong demand also has remained a key factor. In fact, consumers’ willingness to pay for all meat products rose in July 2026. Consumers were willing to pay nearly $19 per pound for a ribeye steak and about $10 per pound for ground beef, suggesting that consumers’ stated desire for meat, and particularly beef, could continue to put upward pressure on prices.”
