New Opportunities in China as American Farm Bankruptcies on the Rise

American farmers and ranchers will hope something good comes out of the latest conversations between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. U.S. agricultural exports to China cratered following President Trump’s higher tariffs.

But U.S. producers want access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers, who represent approximately one in six people worldwide. That is a lot of potential mouths to feed and an enticing market for American goods at a time of surplus production in numerous agricultural industries.

“As with previous U.S.-China agricultural agreements, the commitments are significant, but the long-term impact for U.S. agriculture will depend on how the agreement is implemented and enforced,” wrote Dr. Faith Parum, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. 

U.S. exports declined sharply during Trump’s first administration after he instituted higher tariffs, albeit on a smaller scale that his tariff tactics in his second term. Exports started rising toward the end of his term and then peaked during the middle of President Joe Biden’s term in office before dropping in 2023 and 2024.

Trump tariffs on Chinese imports

Trump’s second round of tariffs caused exports to China to drop substantially again. Soybean exports, for example, were six times higher in 2022 under Biden than they were last year. But the conversations between Trump and Xi could change that dynamic if China fulfills its obligations at the levels that the Trump administration claims.

Parnum wrote, “The latest U.S.-China agreement signals renewed agricultural trade opportunities at a time when many farmers and ranchers continue to face tight margins and market uncertainty. Expanded purchase commitments, reciprocal tariff reductions and restored livestock market access could provide meaningful support if fully implemented.”

Among those opportunities include soybeans, poultry, and beef.

But those opportunities develop only if China comes through. “At the same time, previous U.S.-China agricultural agreements have shown that announced commitments do not always translate into sustained export growth,” Parnum cautioned.

U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Increase

Increased demand for American farmers and ranchers could be a vital lifeline for those on the brink of survival. New figures show that U.S. farm bankruptcies reached a six-year high during the first quarter of 2026.

The steady increase in bankruptcies follows persistent economic stress that has increased following Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. military strikes on Iran, and rising inflation that further heightened input cots.

“This down period for crop farmers has been going on for several years now,” Robert E. Moore, an attorney and research specialist at The Ohio State University Extension’s Agricultural and Resource Law Program, told Law360. “Each year that we don’t start on the upswing is just more and more stress on farmers. And I think the higher diesel prices, the higher fertilizer prices, it’s just made 2026 the breaking point.”

Moore thinks farm bankruptcies will continue to escalate and doesn’t feel hopeful that the farm economy will show significant improvement soon.