Mixed Feelings for U.S. Farmers about China Announcement

When you rely on certainty, what choice do you have but to express optimism and skepticism at the same time when it comes to China buying U.S. soybeans? China had quit buying American beans altogether in response to President Donald Trump’s global trade war, which levied some of its most powerful focus on the biggest customer of U.S. soybeans.

The Trump administration this month trumpeted an agreement that China would resume soybean purchases. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business, “So, you know, our great soybean farmers, who the Chinese used as political pawns, that’s off the table, and they should prosper in the years to come.”

Bessent said that China agreed to buy 12.5 million metric tons of American beans this year and twice that much for the next three years. That amount would still fall short of the 26.81 million metric tons that China bought in 2024, the year before Trump returned to office.

This year’s purchase by China is roughly one-third of the amount that China bought in 2016. China bought 36.05 million metric tons from the U.S. that year, which was the year before Trump entered the White House for his first term and began raising tariffs.

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China had been Tennessee’s largest soybean export buyer, and soybeans have been the state’s top commodity, based on cash receipts. The reliance on soybeans both as a potential source of income for Tennessee growers and the dependence on China as a buyer are obvious.

That is what makes any announcement regarding China multi-layered. Soybean producers hope that are better days ahead with export buyers. But they know two things: China is still not apparently agreeing to purchase as much U.S. beans as before, and there are no guarantees that it will fulfill an agreement anyway.

Tennessee Soybeans Association Executive Director Stefan Maupin told “The Tennessean,” "The reaction was positive, but I’ll remind you that this was an agreement they reached. Very little has been put in writing. China is notorious for going back on their deals or not living up to them."

Maupin continued, “Regardless of the presidency, they know that there's a possibility that this does not come to full fruition."

Brazil and Argentina remain challenging competitors for the United States.