Recession Predictions and a Change in Demand for Meat

The week brought a series of announcements that may have varying effects on farmland owners and investors. First, the overall economy. It has been going backwards in 2025. The U.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarter, well short of the expected 0.4% growth the economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated. President Donald Trump blamed former president Joe Biden, who left office in January. 

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) seasonally/inflation adjusted in the 1st quarter:

-0.3% -- first negative growth in three years

Consumer spending in the 1st quarter:

+1.8% -- smallest in nearly two years

Net exports in 1st quarter:

-5% -- largest drop in 78 years

The president maintains that he will force other countries to renegotiate better trade deals with the United States and the economy will thrive.

RELATED: President Trump has pressured the Fed to lower interest rates. Some farm industry leaders disagree. This is why one long-time agriculture executive does not think policymakers should drop rates much yet. 

What Trade War Has Done So Far to the U.S. Economy

So far, the Trump trade war has ignited fears of recession, depressed consumer confidence, and pushed major stock market indices into decline.

What will the economic landscape look like two months from now? Six months? A year?

Can exports grow to help agriculture producers expand markets and help smaller farmers who may no longer get opportunities through USDA programs to provide meat or produce to local schools, childcare centers, or food banks?

Recession Chances

Remember warnings that the country would fall into recession in 2022? What about 2023? It didn’t happen either time. Is 2025 different? Will consumers change their buying habits enough to impact producers? And in what ways?

American Farmland Owner has checked in from time to time with Dr. Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics, to gauge Americans’ taste for meat and their buying patterns because of the significance consumers have on U.S. producers.

Tonsor leads the Meat Demand Monitor, which tracks how much meat consumers report they eat for breakfast, lunch, and dinner and where they consume it (e.g., home, take out, restaurant service).

Tonsor’s survey found a slight drop in the number of consumers who said they were doing better financially and a more pronounced decline in consumers getting meals outside their homes.  

“Coming in at a slight decrease from March levels of 20%, in April 18% reported improved household finances,” Tonsor posted on LinkedIn. “There is a rise in the inclusion of beef, pork, and chicken in daily meals for the 18% experiencing financial improvements. Spending on away-from-home food decreased notably (from March levels) for those reporting improved finances, possibly aligning with elevating meat price inflation expectations and external reports of reduced restaurant foot traffic.”

The Meat Demand Monitor shows how much its index has fallen over the past year as consumers assess their beef, pork, and chicken consumption.

RELATED: Meat producers have reason to watch how two trends play out: Americans’ increasing commitment to eating more protein and how the expansion of diet drugs reduces food consumption. Dr. Glynn Tonsor shared his insights with American Farmland Owner here.