By the Numbers: Profitable Farming and Bird Flu’s Spread

Cattle farmers are doing better since prices have improved. Although, they must also be cautious about what impact the Trump administration’s increased imports of foreign beef could have on those prices. Fortunately for those American ranchers, consumers are focused on protein. That could also help pork and poultry producers, too, with the increased American appetite for protein.

Inflation is not the albatross for farmers and ranchers that it was a few years ago after COVID shutdowns, altered consumer and business behavior, and supply chain bottlenecks rocked the agricultural economy (and other industries, as well).

Although producers still feel the burden on their operations and their households as well, overall inflation (according to the latest available federal report in September) remains at the same level where it stood in January.

ABA Farmer Mac Agricultural Lender Survey Shows Falling Profits

These are some of the findings from the  2025 ABA/Farmer Mac Agricultural Lender Survey.

Lenders surveyed sensed the continued weight of financial pressures on many of their borrowers. They expect only 52% of operations to be profitable in 2025, which continues a yearslong slide. And it would represent the lowest level since 2016.

Corn, Soybeans, and Cotton Struggle to Turn a Profit

The economic strain appears hardest on those farmers relying on corn, soybeans, or cotton for their main source of income. Those crop producers continue to deal with squeezed margins that can mean potential sales at less than the cost of production.

Overall, lenders surveyed listed liquidity, farm income, and inflation as their top three concerns for farmers in 2025.

RELATED: This Arkansas farmer watched his brother leave the business and worries that he will be the next family member to exit agriculture if the Trump administration can’t help find something soon that helps family farmers struggling to survive.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza on the Rise

As 2025 nears an end, confirmed cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza are once again increasing.

The USDA reports that 1.69 million birds have been impacted over the past 30 days by confirmed virus outbreaks. Six states have confirmed outbreaks, according to the USDA.

Confirmed HPAI outbreaks

1.      Indiana: 707,310 birds

2.      Michigan: 405,150 birds

3.      California: 351,710 birds

4.      South Dakota: 179,500 birds

5.      North Dakota: 24,730 birds

6.      North Carolina: 19,400 birds

HPAI is responsible for the killing of 8.9 million turkeys, chickens, and ducks, from commercial and backyard poultry flocks in the United States since September, according to Civil Eats. 

Civil Eats reported, “infectious disease researchers are increasingly concerned about the rapid evolution of the virus. There is much they still don’t understand about this strain of bird flu, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) often referred to as H5N1 for its dominant subtype, which has been circulating globally in wild birds since the early 2000s. But since it first spilled over into commercial poultry flocks in the U.S. in early 2022, the virus has made startling and alarming advances.”

Washington Man Died from New Strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

While much of the national attention has focused on the H5N1 strain, there is new focus on H5N5, a virus believed to be responsible for the death of a Washington man. It is the first reported death of a human from one of the virus strains in the United States since January.

The Washington State Department of Health announced the death of the man last Friday. He had been hospitalized since early November, according to Washington health officials.

They say that he was an older person with underlying health conditions who had a backyard flock.

RELATED: American Farmland Owner explored the challenges for HPAI for dairy producers in 2024.