Much of Missouri Lacking Moisture as Harvest Time Arrives but Farm Income Could Rise Nationally

Feast or famine has taken the precipitation twist of soaked to parched. Farmers in Missouri started September in search of rain. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that nearly 94% of the state was at least abnormally dry, a precipitous change from the unusually wet spring.

No Significant Rain Forecast, According to State Climatologist

University of Missouri Extension State Climatologist Zachary Leasor said that he did not anticipate significant rainfall. “This is a classic flash drought, developing rapidly after a wet growing season,” Leasor said.

The absence of meaningful rain in August, according to preliminary data, registered as the second-driest August on record. The state received just 0.79 inches in statewide average precipitation.

Drought has occurred frequently over the past four decades, nearly one out of every three years on average. The 16 drought disasters cost at least $1 billion each time, according to MU Extension.

Smaller areas in South Central and Southeastern Missouri are qualified as moderate drought. The Northwest corner of the state, parts of several northern counties, and the Southwest corner showed no drought conditions. None of the state fell into severe drought status or worse.

RELATED: The Mississippi River could use additional rainfall to ensure proper barge traffic flow.  

Lack of Rain May Hinder Missouri Soybean Yields

Missouri soybeans are now traditionally in their seed-filling stage. The absence of much rain comes when those developing beans have their highest need for moisture. University of Missouri Extension state soybean farming systems specialist Andre Froes de Borja Reis said, “Under dry conditions, soybean seeds may become undersized, resulting in yield loss.”

It may not be worthwhile for farmers to hope that late-arriving rain will make up for lost development. Reis said, “Drought has already reduced seed formation in some regions and planting date scenarios, and any rainfall on harvest-matured beans could trigger seed deterioration and price penalties.”

The MU Soybean Growth Monitoring Report found that “the yield model now points to below-average results for most of the state, especially for planting dates after April 26. Early planted soybeans are less affected, since the drought onset occurred late in the seed-filling stage.”

Farm Incomes Expected to Increase

While Missouri farmers deal with the challenges of a near-record dry August and lower forecast soybean yields, their counterparts nationwide could see income rise compared to 2024.

Net farm income could increase by nearly $50 billion from last year, according to the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources Food and Agricultural Policy

Research Institute annual farm income and consumer food price report. 

FAPRI farm income forecast:

• 2024: $128 billion

• 2025: $177 billion

The report expects farmers to benefit from record cattle prices and larger payments from the federal government. However, those payments may not be as supportive in 2026 under the Trump administration.

“Despite strong income this year, much of the gain is temporary,” Pat Westhoff, director of FAPRI, said. “As emergency payments dry up and crop prices remain weak, we project a $31 billion decline in farm income next year.”

RELATED: American Farmland Owner reported in May why decision time could be coming for some American cattle ranchers.