What Higher Tariffs Could Do to a Missouri Farmer

Most Americans aren’t farmers. Only about 2% of adults in the United States are farmers or ranchers. Most Americans don’t understand how higher tariffs instituted by President Donald Trump could impact the lives of farmers right now, regardless of whether they believe the policy will benefit or weaken the United States longer term. Blake Hurst wants to help them figure it out.

“Well, there's two problems,” Hurst told American Farmland Owner from his home in Westboro, Missouri, about two hours north of Kansas City.

“One, tariffs are stupid. This is bad economic policy. It makes no sense at all. And the other, and maybe even larger, is the uncertainty.”

Hurst is a lifelong farmer, nursery owner, and former president of the Missouri Farm Bureau.

Blake Hurst bio

• Corn and beans farmer – Westboro, Missouri

• Hurst Greenery – owner

• Missouri Farm Bureau – former president

  
  

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For growers like Hurst, uncertainty is more than an annoyance: it is a business risk. Hurst’s greenhouse operation relies heavily on imports of critical materials. “We get all of our potting soil from Canada, because that's where sphagnum peat moss is,” he explained. “On the farming business side, we get all of our potash from Canada, because that's where the biggest potash mines are.”

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, a longtime Republican who also farms in northeast Iowa, has pushed for Trump to add potash to the U.S. Critical Minerals List to encourage domestic production. Grassley points out that the U.S. imports 85% of its potash, so he doesn’t want Trump to hike tariffs on the Canadian product that is so vital to farmers like Hurst.

The situation gets even more complicated when it comes to equipment and supplies. That is another challenge for Hurst as he relies on another country to provide a critical product. But the country may be the top foreign villain of the current administration: China.

“We buy a container load—a shipping container load—of plastic from China every year,” Hurst said. “They basically aren’t available here in the U.S., even if we wanted to shop local, which I obviously would rather do.”

Tariffs, both threatened and realized, have varied on both Canada and China.

Trump’s various inconsistent positions on trade levies don’t provide producers with the necessary blueprint they need to plan their operations from one week to the next.

“The tariff schedule today is considerably different than it was a week ago,” Hurst said. “So, we can’t plan. And we know that a bunch of our economic policy is made by people who are, in my mind, economically illiterate.”

Hurst pointed back to the large decorative pots used for growing plants, the items imported in bulk from China. “We buy about 20,000–25,000 of the larger containers each year,” he said. “That's where the uncertainty comes.”

These pots aren’t just off-the-shelf purchases. Because of changing customer preferences and the six-month lead time needed to source and ship them, planning is essential. “We’ll wait to hear from our customer whether she wants to change,” Hurst said.

“And then we’ll start making arrangements. But you have to…that's one of the huge disadvantages from importing. We've got to make decisions here pretty quickly.”

Even if tariffs don’t apply to every product, the risk alone is enough to complicate business planning. And if the tariffs do hit, the financial impact could be significant. “If the tariffs continue—whatever the heck the percentage is going to be on those imports from China—that could be a substantial increase in purchase costs for us,” Hurst acknowledged.

Proponents of tariffs often argue they help level the playing field and bring jobs back to the U.S., but Hurst challenges that assumption.

“The unemployment rate (in the United States) is somewhere between three and four percent. So, the first question you have to answer…if we're going to reshore manufacturing…is what are we gonna quit doing?” he asked. “There are about 500,000 job openings in manufacturing right now. People don’t want these jobs.”

Hurst recounted a family example: “My next-door neighbor, who happens to be a cousin of mine, worked at a factory his whole life, got an early buyout when he was 50. And it was the happiest day of his life. He hated his job.”

On the geopolitical side, Hurst isn’t convinced tariffs have achieved their goals with China. “We've had tariffs on China since 2018. That’s seven years. Has their behavior improved? Is the world safer than it was in 2018? Are they less likely to steal our intellectual property or make a move on Taiwan? I’m not sure there's any evidence for that.”

As the debate over trade policy continues in Washington, voices like Hurst’s serve as a reminder that the impacts of tariffs are not just political: they are personal, economic, and deeply felt on the farm.

RELATED: This is how President Donald Trump said higher tariffs on foreign products would be “fun” for American farmers.